CommonWealth Unbound

Don't bet on a three-way race, Deval

I side with Wayne Woodlief over Howie Carr on the question of whether a independent gubernatorial campaign by Tim Cahill helps or hurts incumbent Deval Patrick in next year's general election. If Cahill finishes third but gets a substantial number of votes, Patrick is probably toast.

It seems logical that multiple candidates can split up the anti-incumbent vote and allow an unpopular pol to stay in office, but that hasn't been the case at the national level. The strongest third-party presidential candidates of the past 50 years were all involved in elections that threw out the incumbent party. In 1968, George Wallace got 14 percent and the Democrats lost; in 1980, John Anderson got 7 percent and Jimmy Carter was unseated; and in 1992, Ross Perot polled 18 percent and George H.W. Bush was evicted. We haven't had many strong third-party candidates for governor in Massachusetts, but the last one (Christy Mihos in 2006) obviously hurt the GOP's attempt to hold onto the office.

My hunch is that third candidates run strongest among voters who lean toward the party in power: They're disappointed or underwhelmed with their party's candidate, but they're not willing to cross party lines. They don't necessarily like "throwing their vote away," but they don't agonize about it. As it happens, they have a general dislike for one major party but also dislike the individual in charge of the other party.

The recession's latest victim: campaign finance innovation

Al Franken isn't the only news in Minnesota politics. One of the Gopher State's more innovative approaches to good government -- giving citizens refunds of up to $50 for political donations, designed to encourage giving among low- and middle-income citizens -- appears to be on its way out. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty eliminated the program's funding through June 30, 2011, citing budgetary concerns.  

We wrote about the refunds last winter as part of an exploration into Minnesota's success at fostering political competition -- especially compared with Massachusetts. Some experts credited the refunds with getting more voters involved in politics and more names on the ballot. In 2006, small-time donors -- people giving $100 or less -- played a more significant role in Minnesota than in any other state with gubernatorial and legislative elections. Minnesota also had the nation's most robust competition for legislative seats in 2008. 

Next year, then, will offer a test case of the connection between donation and participation. Will the lack of refunds mean fewer small-time givers and, if so, will Minnesota lose its distinction as the only state to have at least two candidates in every House race?

Photo of Minnesota campaign signs by Alison Lobron.

Florida may bring direct democracy to planning/zoning process

Sun Belt states have long been considered friendly to developers -- especially compared with states like Massachusetts, where environmentalists and neighborhood groups often have the power to kill projects outright. But there's a move afoot in Florida to bring some New England-style rules to the planning process.

The West Volusia Beacon reports on a ballot initiative that would allow city and county residents to veto projects regardless of what their elected officials decide:

Hometown Democracy will appear as Amendment 4 on the Nov. 2, 2010, ballot. A "yes" from more than 60 percent of voters will give individual Floridians the chance to cast ballots on development proposals now decided by elected city commissions and county councils.

The measure's passage will either save Florida or destroy it, depending on whom you talk with.

Hometown Democracy founder Lesley Blackner said the amendment will stop the ill-planned growth that has bankrupted Florida and threatened its natural resources.

"We have government of the developer, by the developer and for the developer," Blackner said.

But the Florida Chamber of Commerce calls Hometown Democracy "a grave threat to Florida's future" and "a jobs killer that would imperil Florida's prosperity and quality of life, and make the current economic downturn permanent."

Reviews vary on film tax credit report

The Department of Revenue's report on the state's film tax credit is generating wildly different reviews. The Boston Herald headlined its story "Follywood", and the Boston Globe said the report indicated "taxpayers are not getting their money's worth." But the Massachusetts Film Office said the $676 million in movie spending over the last three years "exceeds expectations, at no cost to Massachusetts taxpayers through fiscal year 2008."

Both the Globe and the Herald seized on the fact that the state was getting back roughly 16 cents in tax revenue for each dollar of tax credits issued. But the Film Office chose to look at the statistics from a different perspective: It tallied up tax credits ($167 million), tax revenues ($26 million), and the most optimistic estimate of economic activity ($870 million) and concluded that the state is spending 16 cents for every dollar of new economic activity generated.

"The report shows the film tax credit is a good investment for Massachusetts -- creating thousands of new jobs and infusing much needed spending into cities and towns across the Commonwealth at a time when it is desperately needed," said Joe Maiella, president of the Massachusetts Production Coalition.

No one is misquoting the report. They're just picking and choosing which numbers they use to buttress their analysis. They are filling a void left by the Department of Revenue, which issued a report full of numbers but very little analysis or interpretation.

Will Cahill emulate Schwarzenegger or Finneran?

Independence Day weekend saw Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin skip out on her job, state Sen. Stanley Rosenberg come out of the closet, and state Treasurer Tim Cahill drop out of the Democratic Party. Cahill is assumed to be running for governor as an independent next year, hoping to capitalize on the current unpopularity of Gov. Deval Patrick, the state Legislature, and the tax increases they recently enacted.

Cahill is clearly running as a fiscal conservative, not only opposing the tax hikes but also saying in a Boston Globe interview that the state's three-year-old mandate for universal health care coverage isn't "doable." The next question is, what kind of fiscal conservative will he be?

Will he be an anti-Beacon Hill populist, ready to put a pox on all houses and political parties? Can he duplicate Ross Perot's success with dramatic charts, folksy sayings, and careful avoidance of social issues like abortion? Will he be a bit more dramatic and go for an Arnold Schwarzenegger approach, promising not to shuffle things around on Beacon Hill but instead "blow up boxes"?

Or will Cahill be more like former House Speaker Tom Finneran, proclaiming himself a fiscally responsible adult who can work with the Legislature and act as a check against the "loony left" in the Democratic Party, now associated with Gov. Patrick? Will he embrace his eight-year experience as a statewide official and argue that he can be a more effective governor than fellow anti-tax candidate Christy Mihos -- a "reformer with results," as one presidential candidate once put it?

I suspect that much depends on what possible Republican candidate Charles Baker decides to do. If he runs, the former official in the Weld and Cellucci administrations has to decide whether to run as another outsider (as Mitt Romney and Deval Patrick did) or as someone who knows how things work on Beacon Hill. Cahill seems to be hoping to intimidate Baker from running at all, but if he leans too far in one direction -- angry outsider or experienced administrator -- he might give Baker an opening to take the other role.

Most film tax credit spending goes to nonresidents

The Massachusetts film tax credit induced movie and TV producers to spend $676 million here over the last three years, but more than half of the money went to people who live outside the state, according to a long-delayed Revenue Department report.

The report said the tax credit attracted productions that paid a total of $429 million in wages to 1,876 people. Massachusetts residents held roughly 40 percent of the jobs but received only 18 percent of the wages. Nonresidents pocketed the bulk of the money, with 37 actors, directors, and producers receiving $177 million, or 41 percent of the total.

The Patrick administration had been sitting on the report for more than a month. It was released just before the July 4 holiday during the same week that the Patrick administration flip-flopped on an effort to reduce the state's film tax credit exposure. The budget signed by the governor on Monday included a provision capping at $2 million the amount of a star's salary that would be eligible for the 25 percent film tax credit. That provision was repealed after lawmakers, as well as producers of a big budget Tom Cruise movie coming to Massachusetts in the fall, complained about the change and how it was rushed through the Legislature with no debate. For details, go here.

Take the Red Line to....Chinatown?

Harvard economist Ed Glaeser offers a thought-provoking argument in today's Globe that rational planning should dictate that we focus transit spending in densely populated urban areas and not get taken in by the idea of a vast inter-city, high-speed rail network (sorry Mike Dukakis). But I had a hard time focusing on Glaeser's argument and not on the Globe's creative remapping of the MBTA subway system in the accompanying graphic. (The illustration does not appear to be online, so you'll have to check a dead-tree copy of the paper to follow along.)

Rather than just reproduce the T's standard rendering of subway lines that criss-cross in the downtown area, the Globe graphic shows each of the four lines stretched out next to each other, with a few twists and embellishments made to have them spell out the word "help." The fact that many stops are left out for the sake of simplicity is fine (though one could quibble with the choice of omissions). But a closer look at the Red Line map makes you wonder what they're drinking on Morrissey Boulevard to take their minds off the paper's teetering fiscal condition. For the first time, the Red Line now includes a Chinatown stop. What's more, it is south of the JFK/UMass stop in Dorchester after which the Ashmont and Braintree lines split. And one stop farther south (now only accessible only on the Ashmont branch) is Downtown. The map also has this branch of the Red Line end at Mattapan, rather than Ashmont. (Yes, a tiny fraction of passengers do connect at Ashmont to a trolley to Mattapan, but no one calls this the Mattapan branch of the Red Line; that's why southbound Red Line trains heading here are marked "Ashmont.")

If he were relying on this map, Charlie really would never return.

Are Boston shootings getting drowned out by rain?

The seemingly unending rainfall in Boston has put a damper on lots of fun outdoor doings. Might it also be washing out some activities no one would be sorry to see go? Homicides and total shootings in Boston were both down last month, one of the wettest Junes on record.

According to preliminary data posted on the Boston Police Department's blog, bpdnews.com, there were just three homicides in the city last month, compared with five in June of last year. While the low number of murders for any given month makes it hard to draw firm conclusions from such a shift, total shootings in the city were also down sharply, with just 14 reported last month compared with 35 for June 2008, according police department spokeswoman Elaine Driscoll. Through the end of May, total shootings had been up markedly compared with the same time last year, causing concern among police and community leaders. Through early May, the figures were 88 for this year vs. 63 last year; at the end of May, the numbers were 110 vs. 80. With the sharp decline in June, however, the total number of shootings for the first six months of the year is now only slightly ahead of the 2008 figure (122 vs. 113). The homicide count for the first half of the year stands at 25 compared with 29 for the first half of 2008. 

Boston police commissioner Edward Davis (photo by Kathleen Dooher) said the rainy weather was certainly "a factor" in the steep drop in shootings last month. "People not being out on the street, the fact that they are inside their homes, reduces altercations and the kind of incidents that lead to shootings," he said. But Davis said police have also been particularly focused during this time on driving down street violence. In early June, law enforcement officials gathered members of 17 Boston gangs together at West Roxbury District Court and delivered a stern message that continued violence would be met with full prosecutorial muscle, including the possibility of lengthy federal prison sentences. He said police also made a significant number of arrests of gang members charged with involvement in shootings.

Patrick administration divided on film tax credit

Gov. Deval Patrick officially supports the state's film tax credit, but key members of his cabinet are divided on the issue.

Greg Bialecki, the secretary of housing and urban development, sees the 25 percent tax credit as the carrot that will eventually lure a TV and film industry to Massachusetts, but Leslie Kirwan, the secretary of administration and finance, is concerned about the tax credit's high cost and anemic job creation.

Bialecki says he and Kirwan have been meeting with the governor on the issue for a couple months, trying to figure out the right balance between cost and benefit.

"It's a balance between 'how do you promote a new industry in Massachusetts' versus 'how much is it costing you and how much you can afford to spend,'" Bialecki said. "The governor and Secretary Kirwan and I have been discussing this balance. It's a judgment call. It's not an easy question."

Bialecki stressed that he and Kirwan are not battling with each other. "It's a discussion," he said. "We're not necessarily on different sides of the table." Kirwan declined comment.

Patrick says he changed his mind on film tax credit change

Gov. Deval Patrick says he initially supported a budget proposal to limit how much of a movie star's salary would be eligible for the Massachusetts film tax credits, but then changed his mind after reviewing the issue more closely.

Patrick filed the proposal early last month as part of his revised state budget. It would have capped at $2 million the amount of a star's salary eligible for the state's 25 percent film tax credit and saved the state an estimated $20 million this year. The measure was approved by the House and Senate and signed into law as part of the state budget on Monday. But shortly afterward Patrick signed a separate spending bill containing language repealing the earlier provision.

"It's a policy choice," Patrick said today in a brief interview at the door to his office, after a ceremonial signing of a new ethics reform law. "I thought more about it and got new information."

He was vague about what new information he obtained, saying he consulted with his economic development staff about efforts to grow a film production industry in Massachusetts.